February 20, 2025

Trinity Industries shares tumble after Q4 results and 2025 guidance

Investing.com -- Trinity Industries (NYSE: NYSE: TRN ) stock fell 7% following the release of its fourth-quarter earnings, which showed a mixed performance compared to the previous year. The company reported a fourth-quarter EPS of $0.39, marginally surpassing the analyst estimate of $0.38. However, the company's revenue for the quarter was $629 million, which did not meet the year-over-year mark of $797.9 million.

Despite surpassing revenue expectations against the consensus estimate of $570 million, Trinity Industries' stock experienced a downturn, attributed to its full-year 2025 EPS guidance of $1.50-1.80, which is in line with the consensus of $1.68 but reflects potential challenges ahead.

Trinity's full-year adjusted EPS of $1.82 represented a 32% increase compared to 2023, driven by higher lease rates, improved margin performance, and a higher volume of external repairs. The company's CEO and President, Jean Savage, credited these results to the Trinity team's efforts and highlighted a strong cash flow from operations, which was up 65% over the previous year.

For the full year, Trinity reported revenues of $3.1 billion and a reported EPS of $1.81, showing a significant improvement from the $2.983 billion in revenue and $1.43 EPS reported in the previous year. These results were supported by a higher volume of external repairs and higher lease rates in the Leasing Group, as well as improved efficiencies in the Rail Products Group.

However, the company's guidance for 2025 indicates a cautious outlook. Savage pointed to a projected 20% decrease in industry deliveries due to uncertainty around tariffs impacting investment decisions. The guidance also anticipates continued leasing revenue improvement and consistent operating margins but with lower deliveries and a higher proportion of deliveries to the lease fleet, which may result in slightly lower gains on lease portfolio sales.

The decrease in Trinity's stock reflects investor concerns about the company's ability to sustain its performance in a potentially less favorable operating environment. While the company has made strides in improving its operational efficiency and lease rates, the market's reaction suggests skepticism about whether these improvements can offset the expected challenges in the coming year.

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