February 25, 2025

Consumer anxiety growing fast, Wells Fargo says

Investing.com -- Consumer confidence fell sharply in February, marking the largest decline since 2021, according to Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC ) analysts.

The bank said in a note Tuesday that the drop reflects growing concerns about the economy, inflation, and the labor market, with the forward-looking expectations index now at its lowest level in eight months, just 7.3 points above its 2022 cycle low.

The Conference Board's latest consumer confidence index fell to 98.3, and analysts at Wells Fargo highlight a notable shift in sentiment.

"A sharp increase in the mentions of trade and tariffs, back to a level unseen since 2019," was recorded in survey responses, pointing to rising inflation worries.

Household financial outlooks also deteriorated. "While the official release noted that 'comments on the current Administration and its policies dominated the responses,' not all the deterioration in confidence is due to the rapid-fire changes being implemented by the new administration," Wells Fargo analysts wrote.

They added that inflation remains a top concern, as 12-month inflation expectations jumped from 5.2% in January to 6.0% in February, a significant shift that underscores lingering anxiety from past price spikes.

Labor market fears also intensified, according to Wells Fargo. They note that the labor differential—the percentage of consumers who see jobs as “plentiful” minus those who view them as “hard to get”—fell to 17.1% from 19.4% in January.

“Remarkably, the share of consumers who expect fewer jobs to be available over the next six months rose to 25.9%, outpacing the fear evident in the COVID-era and registering the highest share since 2013,” wrote Wells Fargo.

For now, the bank believes hard hiring data suggests the labor market is holding steady, but as Wells Fargo notes, "this pessimism about the labor market in combination with household worries about inflation led to a decline in consumer perceptions of their expected household financial situation six months out."

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