Investing.com -- Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst at TF International Securities, shared insights on Sunday about the semiconductor industry, focusing on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA). According to Kuo, in a post on X, TSMC’s CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) expansion plan is on track, with an expected increase in production capacity to about 70,000 wafers per month by December 2025.

Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA )’s plan to invest in approximately 370,000 CoWoS wafers at TSMC in 2025 remains largely unchanged since the fourth quarter of 2024, Kuo noted. He clarified that minor changes in the single-digit percentage range are considered normal and within a reasonable range.

Contrary to market rumors suggesting a reduction in Nvidia’s 2025 CoWoS wafer production plan at TSMC from more than 400,000 wafers to 380,000, Kuo’s findings indicate no such decrease. He suggested that these rumors might have originated from overly optimistic market participants or misunderstandings about Nvidia’s production plan changes due to the significantly earlier product conversion time for the B200 and B300 series.

Kuo emphasized that TSMC is known for its cautious approach to capacity expansion. He stated that unless there’s a dramatic industry reversal in the short term, it’s unlikely to see significant order reductions. Last year, Nvidia urged TSMC to increase its monthly CoWoS capacity to 100,000 wafers during a period of heightened market optimism around AI and Nvidia. However, TSMC rejected this request.

Kuo pointed out that if outsiders had obtained Nvidia’s optimistic request, some market participants might overestimate TSMC’s capacity or Nvidia’s orders based on the leaked information, leading to market speculation.

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