5 big analyst AI moves: Stock upgrades for Adobe, SMCI, Monday.com
Investing.com -- Here are the biggest analyst moves in the area of artificial intelligence (AI) for this week.
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Evercore hikes Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL ) price target on AI monetization opportunity
This week, Evercore ISI raised its price target on Apple to $275 from $260, reiterating its Outperform rating. The investment banking firm sees Apple as well-positioned to capitalize on AI-driven growth without the significant GPU investments faced by peers.
Evercore analysts pointed to several long-term monetization opportunities that support Apple’s profile as a "Tech Staple" with the potential for mid-single-digit revenue growth and low-to-mid-teens gains in both EPS and free cash flow over the coming years.
“While investors over-index on iPhone growth, we think there is less of a focus on AAPL’s ability to keep growing EPS & FCF growth consistently via. gross margin (mix and pricing), Operating leverage and buybacks,” the team said.
Evercore also pointed out different growth avenues including Apple Intelligence, healthcare, advertising, payments, and expansion in emerging markets—all of which could play a meaningful role in Apple’s financial trajectory.
“AAPL is positioned to benefit from AI monetization without having to invest their FCF into GPUs, we see monetization occurring on multiple fronts over time,” the note added.
The firm sees rising demand for iPhones in markets like India helping to support unit growth, while services revenue is projected to rise at a pace above 12%, supported by higher ARPU and new offerings. Wearables also remain a source of upside as adoption deepens.
Negative Microsoft sentiment ’way overdone,’ to improve from here: Wedbush
Investor concerns around Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT ) are "way overdone," and 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for the company’s AI-driven growth, according to Wedbush analysts led by Daniel Ives.
Like much of the broader tech sector, Microsoft shares have faced pressure amid skepticism about the near-term monetization of AI and growing competitive threats. But Wedbush’s recent channel checks suggest momentum is building, with stronger deal activity this quarter boosting confidence in Azure’s performance.
“AI revenue run rate (ARR) continues to track ahead of expectations and we believe MSFT’s sell-off is a stark contrast to what we are seeing take place in the field despite market jitters,” Ives and his team noted.
They see Microsoft as “a table pounder name to own at current valuations and one of the best ways to play the AI Revolution theme over the coming years.”
Microsoft is increasingly focused on developing an “agentic world,” enabling enterprises to integrate AI agents backed by robust security. This shift is expected to improve operational outcomes, speed, and quality across business functions.
Wedbush estimates that more than 75% of Microsoft’s existing customer base will adopt AI capabilities over the next three years, driving a major transition in enterprise software usage. It sees 2025 as “the true inflection year of AI growth with pricing, beta customers, and use cases all rolled out.”
AI revenue is projected to surpass a $15 billion annual run rate in the coming quarter, marking what Wedbush views as a transformative shift that the market has yet to fully price into the stock.
KeyBanc upgrades Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE ), says stock is now ’fairly valued’
Meanwhile, KeyBanc upgraded Adobe to Sector Weight from Underweight, citing limited downside and stable fundamentals. The investment bank believes the stock is now "fairly valued" and sees little justification for further multiple compression relative to peers.
"We see little room for downside, revisions to fundamentals through the remainder of the fiscal year, and, given that assumption, it is hard to argue for continued multiple compression relative to peers," KeyBanc analysts wrote.
The rating revision comes after KeyBanc reevaluated its reaction to Adobe’s decision to stop disclosing Creative and Document Cloud ARR in its Q1 2025 results. "We were pretty heated last week when the Creative and Document Cloud ARR disclosures were taken away in the 1Q25 print," the team noted.
However, following Adobe’s Investor Meeting on Tuesday, the firm voiced a shift in perspective: "Hand up, we overreacted."
While still critical of the change, KeyBanc said it now sees "merit in the change of presentation," particularly as the updated breakdown offers some visibility into Creative Cloud subscription revenue. Even so, the firm remains cautious about long-term transparency, especially around segments facing competitive pressure.
"Our ability to estimate the split between Document Cloud revenue contributions and Acrobat and Express contributions are at their highest today, but this will degrade as we get further into the future," analysts said. They warned that the new reporting format could obscure insight into the most vulnerable parts of Adobe’s business.
"The piece of the business that we and investors view as most under threat from competition, the non-creative professional piece of the Creative Cloud, will be harder to discern going forward," the note concluded.
AI server maker SMCI upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan
In another of this week’s string of upgrades, JPMorgan lifted its rating on Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI ) to Neutral from Underweight, citing improved visibility following the resolution of SEC filing uncertainties and expectations for increased demand tied to Blackwell-based server shipments.
Analysts highlighted rising average selling prices (ASP) as a key driver of near-term revenue growth for SMCI. However, they flagged potential margin pressure ahead, pointing to a competitive environment and higher internal control-related expenses.
The firm raised its 12-month revenue outlook for the AI server maker, supported by signs of a stronger supply ramp from Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA ). Still, JPMorgan remains cautious on profitability trends, warning that gross margins are likely to moderate in fiscal 2026 compared to fiscal 2025, which could limit operating margin expansion and EPS growth.
JPMorgan also lifted its December 2025 price target on the stock to $45, reflecting a higher 10x earnings multiple versus the previous 9x. But the firm continues to apply a discount to peers such as Dell (NYSE: DELL ), which trades at 11x, due to ongoing risks tied to governance.
“These headwinds will likely be an overhang on the earnings multiple,” wrote analysts led by Samik Chatterjee, referencing past audit issues, a CFO transition, and an ongoing Department of Justice investigation.
D.A. Davidson raises Monday.com to Buy after pullback
D.A. Davidson upgraded Monday.com to Buy from Neutral, citing an attractive entry point following a roughly 20% pullback in the stock over the past month—sharper than the 14% drop in the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF.
The analysts feel confident about the sustainability of Monday.com’s cash flows and noted increasing enterprise adoption of its platform. The upgrade follows strong forward revenue guidance and consistent execution despite broader market uncertainty.
According to D.A. Davidson’s Lucky Schreiner, the pullback was seen as an opportunity to reassess the company’s prospects, leading to a more bullish stance.
The company’s forecast for around 25% revenue growth in fiscal 2025 was viewed as a strong indicator of durable momentum, supported by solid demand for its CRM product and encouraging early adoption of Monday Service.
Schreiner also pointed to gains in the company’s move upmarket, including growth in net new $100K customers and improved Net Dollar Retention among those clients.
Enhancements to mondayDB and increasing traction with partners are also helping to drive enterprise expansion.
FCF margins stood at 30% last year and are expected to remain strong at around 25% in fiscal 2025, even with stepped-up investments in sales and R&D. Gross retention remains at record highs, with minimal churn in the small and mid-sized business segments.
“Guidance also assumed stable net dollar retention (NDR) of 112% despite three quarters of improvement in that metric factoring in potential macro headwinds. And Monday.com is likely to benefit modestly from new AI usage revenue providing some cushion around results,” Schreiner wrote.
Should the bullish case not materialize, the analyst sees limited downside given that “guidance... implied 100-200bp of FX headwinds, roughly ~$15M, from a strong dollar which has since weakened.”