Investing.com -- Moody’s Ratings has lowered the corporate family rating (CFR) of Yanlord Land Group Limited (Yanlord) from B1 to B2. Additionally, the rating agency has also downgraded the backed senior unsecured rating of a bond issued by Yanlord Land (HK) Co., Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Yanlord, to B3 from B2. This bond is guaranteed by Yanlord.

Simultaneously, Moody’s has altered the outlook on these ratings from negative to stable. The downgrade is a result of Yanlord’s diminished operating scale, indicated by continuous contracted sales declines, which Moody’s anticipates will continue to impact the company’s operating performance and credit metrics over the next 12-18 months, according to Daniel Zhou, a Moody’s Ratings Assistant Vice President and Analyst.

Zhou also stated that the stable outlook is based on the expectation that Yanlord will maintain sufficient liquidity to meet all funding needs over the same period.

The B2 CFR assigned to Yanlord takes into account the company’s established brand and high-quality products. It also considers the company’s adequate liquidity, despite a narrowing buffer, and solid recurring rental income from its investment properties in China and Singapore.

However, the rating is constrained by Yanlord’s reduced operating scale, declining sales, weakening credit metrics, geographic concentration, and significant exposure to joint venture businesses. Yanlord’s gross contracted sales fell to RMB22.2 billion in 2024, continuing the declining trend observed in 2023, mainly due to sector challenges and a significant slowdown in land replenishment.

Over the next 12-18 months, Moody’s predicts Yanlord’s annual contracted sales to decrease by around 5%. The decline in contracted sales will further reduce Yanlord’s revenue and cash flow during this period, though recurring income from Yanlord’s established investment properties, especially those in Singapore, could partially offset this.

Moody’s projects that Yanlord’s debt leverage, measured by adjusted debt/EBITDA, will increase to around 7.0x over the next 12-18 months from 4.3x in 2024. The company’s adjusted EBIT/interest coverage is also expected to decline to around 2.0x from 3.8x for the same period.

Yanlord’s liquidity remains adequate, with a cash balance of RMB10.2 billion at the end of 2024 and operating cash flow sufficient to cover its debt maturities over the next 12-18 months, including a USD500 million bond due in May 2026. Yanlord’s ability to obtain secured loans by pledging its investment properties can also support its liquidity.

However, the company’s B3 senior unsecured debt rating is one notch lower than the CFR due to structural subordination risk. This risk arises because the majority of claims are at the operating subsidiaries and have priority over Yanlord’s senior unsecured claims in a bankruptcy scenario. The holding company lacks significant mitigating factors for structural subordination, resulting in a lower likely recovery rate for claims at the holding company.

In terms of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors, Moody’s has taken into account Yanlord’s concentrated ownership, with its largest shareholder and chairman, Mr. Zhong Sheng Jian, holding approximately 71.55% direct and indirect stake in the company as of March 10, 2025.

Moody’s could upgrade Yanlord’s ratings if the company strengthens its sales performance and credit metrics, and continues to maintain adequate liquidity. Conversely, the ratings could be downgraded if Yanlord’s liquidity becomes inadequate, its contracted sales drop more than expected, or its credit metrics weaken further.

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